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January 2020

Brussels, 20 February 2020 - In its first forecast for the 2020 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 302.7 mln t. This is down from the 2019 level of 308.9 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 137.9 mln t, down from last year’s 145.7 mln t. The expected decrease is mainly due to a significant acreage reduction in France, Germany, Denmark and particularly the UK due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall. France, Denmark, and the UK are also forecast to see lower yields than last year.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is forecast at 60.8 mln t, down from 62.2 mln t last year. This is mainly due to an expected return in winter barley yields from last year’s exceptionally good levels in France and the UK to average levels, which cannot be completely offset by higher spring barley areas and yields.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is expected to reach 65.0 mln t and thus more than last year’s 61.0 mln t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.0 mln ha versus 8.5 mln ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected for France, Germany and Poland.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU stands at 17.1 mln t which only marginally higher than last year’s disappointing level of 16.7 mln t. France and Romania are expected to see a further decrease in acreage, whereas Germany should see a slight recovery from the very low level in 2019. EU-wide yields are seen only slightly better than last year, with improvements expected for Germany, France, and Romania, but lower levels for the UK and Denmark.

Please note that the methodology used to complete the COCERAL crop forecast remains the same as usual, the only change in this year’s forecast is related to the UK crop data. As you will see attached, our COCERAL Crop estimates are presented in two versions, ‘EU-27’ and the ‘EU-27 plus UK’. 


December 2019

Brussels, 11 December 2019 - In its fourth estimate for the 2019 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 307.8 mln t. This is up from the September estimate of 304.9 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.3 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 145.0 mln t, up from the 143.3 mln t seen in September and well above the 126.9 mln t in 2018. Crop estimates for Spain, Hungary and the Baltic countries have seen the most significant upward revisions, with actual yields being better than previously estimated.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 62.1 mln t, up from 60.8 mln t in the September forecast and from 56.0 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised down marginally from 61.6 mln t to 61.5 mln t (last year: 61.3 mln t).

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 17.3 mln t to 17.1 mln t due to further reductions in the French, German, Lithuania’s and the UK’s crops. In 2018, the EU’s rapeseed crop stood at 20.1 mln t.


September 2019

Brussels, 20 September 2019 - In its third estimate for the 2019 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 304.9 mln t. This is up from the May forecast of 301.0 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.5 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 143.3 mln t, up from the 140.3 mln t seen in May and well above the 128.8 mln t in 2018. Crop estimates for France and the UK have seen the most significant upward revisions, with actual yields being better than previously forecast.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 60.8 mln t, up from 59.0 mln t in the May forecast and from 56.0 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised down from 62.9 mln t to 61.6 mln t (last year: 59.9 mln t) mainly due to downward revisions in Germany and France due to hot and dry weather during pollination.

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 17.9 mln t to 17.3 mln t due to further reductions in the French, German, and the UK’s crops. In 2018, the EU’s rapeseed crop stood at 20.0 mln t.


May 2019

Brussels, 21 MAY 2019 – In its second forecast for the 2019 crop, Coceral projects the EU total grain crop at 301.0 mln t.

This is slightly up from the March forecast of 298.5 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.0 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 140.3 mln t, up slightly from the 139.8 mln t seen in March and well above the 127.4 mln t in 2018. After a dry fall in 2018 and a dry period of 6 weeks in March and April, growing conditions have stabilized recently thanks to rains.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 59.0 mln t, down from 59.4 mln t previously, but up from 56.1 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised up from 61.0 mln t to 62.9 mln t (last year: 60.9 mln t) mainly due to a much higher than previously expected acreage in Germany and Romania.

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 18.6 mln t to 17.9 mln t due to a sharp reduction in the French crop.