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September 2020

Brussels, 25 September 2020 - In its fifth forecast for the 2020 crop, COCERAL sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 293.6 mln t. This is down from the 295.5 mln t seen in the fourth forecast in August and 18.8 mln t down from the 2019 level of 312.4 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen almost unchanged from the previous estimate at 129.2 mln t. This compares to last year’s crop of 146.0 mln t.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is now forecast at 61.3 mln t, down from the 62.5 mln t seen in the previous forecast and from the 63.2 mln t last year.The downward revision is mainly due to downward revisions for the UK, the Balkan countries and parts of Scandinavia, which cannot offset a further upward revision in Spain.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is revised down to 62.8 mln t from the previous forecast of 64.6 mln t. Last year’s crop was at 65.3 mln t. Hot and dry weather has further reduced yield potential, especially in the Balkan countries.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU-27+UK has remained unchanged at 17.0 mln t. Last year’s crop stood at 16.8 mln t.


August 2020

Brussels, 24 August 2020 - In its fourth forecast for the 2020 crop, COCERAL sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 295.5 mln t. This is down from the 299.2 mln t seen in the third forecast in June and 16.1 mln t down from the 2019 level of 311.6 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 129.1 mln t down from the previous 129.7 mln t and from last year’s 146.8 mln t. Significant downward revisions in France and the Balkan countries are not completely offset by upward revisions in Poland, the Baltic countries, and Scandinavia.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is now forecast at 62.5 mln t, down from the 63.4 mln t seen in the previous forecast, but up from the 62.1 mln t last year. The downward revision is mainly due to lower yields in France.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is revised down to 64.6 mln t from the previous forecast of 66.8 mln t. Last year’s crop was at 64.8 mln t. Hot and dry weather has reduced yield potential in France, Germany and the Balkan countries.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU-27+UK has been revised up from 16.5 mln t to 17.0 mln t as actual yields Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries were better than previously expected. Last year’s crop stood at 16.9 mln t.


June 2020

Brussels, 8 June 2020 - In its third forecast for the 2020 crop, COCERAL sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 299.2 mln t. This is down from the 301.8 mln t seen in the second forecast in March and 12.6 mln t down from the 2019 level of 311.8 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 129.7 mln t down from the previous 135.4 mln t and from last year’s 146.8 mln t. The downward revision is mainly due to a significant yield reduction in France, Germany, and Denmark due to dryness.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is now forecast at 63.4 mln t, up from the 61.5 mln t seen in the previous forecast and from the 62.1 mln t last year. This is also due to a higher than previously expected crop in Spain.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is revised up to 66.8 mln t from the previous forecast of 65.5 mln t. Last year’s crop was at 64.9 mln t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.2 mln ha versus 8.6 mln ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected for France and Germany.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU-27+UK has been revised down from 17.0 mln t to 16.5 mln t mainly due to further downward revisions in Germany, France, the UK, and Romania. Last year’s crop stood at 16.9 mln t.


March 2020

Brussels, 17 March 2020 - In its revised forecast for the 2020 crop, COCERAL sees the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 301.8 mln t. This is marginally down from the 302.7 mln t seen in the first forecast and 6.1 mln t down from the 2019 level of 307.9 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 135.4 mln t down from the previous 137.9 mln t and from last year’s 145.7 mln t. The expected decrease is mainly due to a further significant acreage reduction in the UK due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is now forecast at 61.5 mln t, up from the 60.8 mln t seen in the first forecast, but down from the 62.2 mln t last year. This is mainly due to a higher than previously expected spring barley area in the UK which is expected to benefit from lower winter wheat and rapeseed plantings.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is still expected to reach 65.5 mln t and thus more than last year’s 61.0 mln t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.0 mln ha versus 8.5 mln ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected for France, Germany and Poland.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been slightly revised down from 17.1 mln t to 17.0 mln t as a further downward revision in the UK’s acreage has not been offset by a higher acreage in France.


January 2020

Brussels, 20 February 2020 - In its first forecast for the 2020 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 302.7 mln t. This is down from the 2019 level of 308.9 mln t.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is seen at 137.9 mln t, down from last year’s 145.7 mln t. The expected decrease is mainly due to a significant acreage reduction in France, Germany, Denmark and particularly the UK due to abundant rains during the planting season last fall. France, Denmark, and the UK are also forecast to see lower yields than last year.

The EU’s 2020 barley production is forecast at 60.8 mln t, down from 62.2 mln t last year. This is mainly due to an expected return in winter barley yields from last year’s exceptionally good levels in France and the UK to average levels, which cannot be completely offset by higher spring barley areas and yields.

The EU’s 2020 corn crop is expected to reach 65.0 mln t and thus more than last year’s 61.0 mln t. The corn acreage is seen benefiting from the wet planting campaign for winter grains. It is therefore seen at 9.0 mln ha versus 8.5 mln ha in 2019. The most notable year-on-year increases in production are expected for France, Germany and Poland.

The 2020 rapeseed production forecast for the EU stands at 17.1 mln t which only marginally higher than last year’s disappointing level of 16.7 mln t. France and Romania are expected to see a further decrease in acreage, whereas Germany should see a slight recovery from the very low level in 2019. EU-wide yields are seen only slightly better than last year, with improvements expected for Germany, France, and Romania, but lower levels for the UK and Denmark.

Please note that the methodology used to complete the COCERAL crop forecast remains the same as usual, the only change in this year’s forecast is related to the UK crop data. As you will see attached, our COCERAL Crop estimates are presented in two versions, ‘EU-27’ and the ‘EU-27 plus UK’. 


December 2019

Brussels, 11 December 2019 - In its fourth estimate for the 2019 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 307.8 mln t. This is up from the September estimate of 304.9 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.3 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 145.0 mln t, up from the 143.3 mln t seen in September and well above the 126.9 mln t in 2018. Crop estimates for Spain, Hungary and the Baltic countries have seen the most significant upward revisions, with actual yields being better than previously estimated.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 62.1 mln t, up from 60.8 mln t in the September forecast and from 56.0 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised down marginally from 61.6 mln t to 61.5 mln t (last year: 61.3 mln t).

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 17.3 mln t to 17.1 mln t due to further reductions in the French, German, Lithuania’s and the UK’s crops. In 2018, the EU’s rapeseed crop stood at 20.1 mln t.


September 2019

Brussels, 20 September 2019 - In its third estimate for the 2019 crop, Coceral sees the EU total grain crop at 304.9 mln t. This is up from the May forecast of 301.0 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.5 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 143.3 mln t, up from the 140.3 mln t seen in May and well above the 128.8 mln t in 2018. Crop estimates for France and the UK have seen the most significant upward revisions, with actual yields being better than previously forecast.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 60.8 mln t, up from 59.0 mln t in the May forecast and from 56.0 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised down from 62.9 mln t to 61.6 mln t (last year: 59.9 mln t) mainly due to downward revisions in Germany and France due to hot and dry weather during pollination.

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 17.9 mln t to 17.3 mln t due to further reductions in the French, German, and the UK’s crops. In 2018, the EU’s rapeseed crop stood at 20.0 mln t.


May 2019

Brussels, 21 MAY 2019 – In its second forecast for the 2019 crop, Coceral projects the EU total grain crop at 301.0 mln t.

This is slightly up from the March forecast of 298.5 mln t and significantly up from last year’s crop when farmers harvested 281.0 mln t of grains.

Wheat production is seen at 140.3 mln t, up slightly from the 139.8 mln t seen in March and well above the 127.4 mln t in 2018. After a dry fall in 2018 and a dry period of 6 weeks in March and April, growing conditions have stabilized recently thanks to rains.

The EU’s barley production forecast for 2019 stands at 59.0 mln t, down from 59.4 mln t previously, but up from 56.1 mln t last year.

The EU’s corn crop forecast has been revised up from 61.0 mln t to 62.9 mln t (last year: 60.9 mln t) mainly due to a much higher than previously expected acreage in Germany and Romania.

The rapeseed production forecast for the EU has been reduced from 18.6 mln t to 17.9 mln t due to a sharp reduction in the French crop.